Almost 180,000 pupils are set for a life of unemployment due to ‘troubling’ school absence rates, a think tank has warned.
The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) said that, without intervention, the high rates of children bunking off school will translate into joblessness.
It said the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (Neet) is set to rise as a result.
The latest data from the Department for Education (DfE) shows that the number of children missing at least half of school time – defined as ‘severely absent’ – has risen.
A total of 147,605 children — 2.04 per cent of pupils — missed at least half of school sessions in autumn 2024, up from 1.97 per cent a year earlier.
Although this remains below the record high of 172,938 in the summer of 2023, the CSJ said ‘the trend remains on an alarmingly upwards trajectory’.
The think tank found that children who received free school meals were nearly four times more likely than their peers to be severely absent.
Meanwhile those with special educational needs were seven times more likely.
Beth Prescott, the education lead at the CSJ, said: ‘Five years on from school closures, classroom absences can no longer be viewed as a post-pandemic blip.
‘The material risk now is that this issue is becoming deeply entrenched.
‘It is sending a wave of harm through our economy, driving more young people towards a life of wasted potential and benefit dependency.’
She said the Government should help local charities to provide mentors to help children attend school.
But she added: ‘With the crisis deepening, we need to attack the root causes of school absence, including softening parental attitudes to attendance and an education system that fails to engage thousands of young people.’
The CSJ conducted modelling based on previous studies which suggested there could be 175,000 Neet 16-18 year olds due to absence between 2024/25 and 2028/29.
However, the DfE pointed out that other measures of absence painted a rosier picture.
The latest data shows overall absence rate dropped from 6.69 per cent to 6.38 per cent, meaning that on average six out of every 100 pupils were off on a typical school day.
Persistent absence, defined as missing at least 10 per cent of sessions, or a day per fortnight, fell from 19.4 per cent to 17.8 per cent.
This equates to 1.28 million children, down from 1.41 million the year before, although the figure remains 40 per cent higher than in autumn 2019.
A DfE spokesperson said: ‘We inherited a broken school system so we are taking decisive action through our plan for change to tackle the attendance crisis — and the latest data shows positive green shoots, with the biggest year-on-year improvement in attendance in a decade.
‘We are making huge progress, with over five million more days in school this year and 140,000 fewer pupils persistently absent, which research shows in time is likely to improve severe absence.
‘We know there is more to do, which is why we are rolling out free breakfast clubs, improving mental health support, ensuring earlier intervention for children with special educational needs and will set out our vision for the school system in the white paper later this year.’
